养老服务城乡融合程度、趋势及机理以四川省为例
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四川省哲学社会竞技宝更新app“十四五”规划项目“四川老龄化特征与养老服务城乡融合高质量发展研究”(项目编号:SC23TJ025)。


Degree,Trends,and Mechanisms of Urban-Rural Integration in Elderly Care Services:A Case Study of Sichuan Province
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    摘要:

    基于四川21个市、州经验数据,采用熵权法测算出全省及各市州养老服务城乡融合指数,并借助耦合协同法、Kernel核密度估计法、QAP方法评估养老服务城乡融合程度、趋势及机理。结果显示:四川养老服务城乡融合指数显著提升,其中成都平原和川东北表现突出,但各市州之间的指数收敛性趋势仍然面临恶化风险。从系统协调度来看,全省养老服务城乡融合的整体协调度持续改善,其中包容性增长子系统与协同治理子系统、财政支持子系统的协调度良好,但后两者之间的协调度相对较低。从机理来看,对于高协调度地区来说,养老服务城乡融合发展受到上级支持、财力协调与政府主导的三维驱动;对于低协调度地区来说,则主要受制于制度环境和服务能力的双重约束。建议应实施差异化的政策组合,强化制度供给的精准适配,完善跨系统协同治理机制。

    Abstract:

    Based on empirical data from 21 prefectures in Sichuan Province,this study employs the entropy weight method to calculate the urban-rural integration index of elderly care services at both provincial and prefectural levels.The coupling coordination method, kernel density estimation,and QAP method are applied to evaluate the degree,trends, and mechanisms of urban-rural integration in elderly care services.The results indicate that the urban-rural integration index of elderly care services in Sichuan has improved significantly,with the Chengdu Plain and Northeast Sichuan exhibiting outstanding performance.However,the convergence trend among prefectures remains at risk of deterioration.Regarding systemic coordination,the overall degree of coordination for urban-rural integration in elderly care services has continued to improve.While the inclusive growth subsystem demonstrates strong coordination with both the collaborative governance and fiscal support subsystems, coordination between the latter two subsystems remains relatively low.Mechanistic analysis reveals that high-coordination regions are driven by three-dimensional factors - top-down support,fiscal coordination,and government leadership-whereas low-coordination regions are constrained by institutional environments and limited service capabilities.

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任斌,李新萍.养老服务城乡融合程度、趋势及机理以四川省为例[J].竞技宝app官方入口学报(社会科学版),2025,37(4):61-74.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-06
  • 最后修改日期:2025-02-06
  • 录用日期:2025-03-25
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-19
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